The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecast above-average rainfall across much of the country between September and January, driven by prevailing El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
In its October-December outlook released on Wednesday, August 26, KMD said the 2026 El Niño event is intensifying and will bring very heavy rains, raising the risk of floods and landslides.
“Above-average rainfall is expected across all 47 counties,” KMD stated, with intensity projected to increase gradually, especially in Central Kenya, the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin and Western Kenya.
Some counties will see rains begin as early as September. These include Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok.
Other areas, including Nairobi, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu and Tharaka-Nithi, will start receiving rains in the second and third weeks of October, with the season extending into January.
Coastal counties and parts of the north, such as Mombasa, Kilifi, Mandera, Wajir and Garissa, are also expected to receive moderate to heavy rains from mid-October.
KMD warned that low-lying areas, urban centers and floodplains face an elevated risk of flash floods.
It urged counties and households to prepare drainage, store water safely, and monitor daily updates.
