A Ksh629 billion gap between China’s export records and Kenya’s import data has raised fresh concerns over possible customs revenue leakages and tax losses
According to Chinese customs data, goods worth Ksh1.3 trillion were exported to Kenya in 2025. However, records from the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) show imports from China worth only Ksh672 billion, leaving an unexplained discrepancy equivalent to nearly half of China’s reported exports.
The mismatch is not new. Trade data shows the gap has persisted over the last five years, with the cumulative difference between the two countries’ records reaching Ksh2.76 trillion between 2021 and 2025.
Economists say the disparity could point to under-declaration of imports, trade mis-invoicing, smuggling, or other customs irregularities that may have denied the government billions of shillings in tax revenue.
The National Treasury has previously said it is working with Chinese tax and customs authorities to verify the value of high-risk imports and strengthen customs enforcement to curb revenue leakages.
Trade mis-invoicing remains a significant challenge for many developing countries, reducing domestic resource mobilization and undermining tax collection
JOHN MBADi
Customs duties remain one of the Kenya Revenue Authority’s largest sources of revenue, contributing Ksh733.7 billion in the nine months to March 2026, highlighting the importance of accurate import declarations in safeguarding public finances.
